Let's face it, trying to predict how the NFL Draft will unfold is next to impossible... but it is fun! Ahead of next week's event, NBC 26's resident draft fanatic took a crack at predicting how the seven-round pick 'em might unfold using online draft simulators.
If you want to see the results, you can scroll down. But first, here is an explanation of how those results were calculated.
___________
First off, who am I? My name is Jim Pelon. I am a newscast director here at NBC 26 and while I am avid football fan, I am far from an expert.
To determine each pick I used online draft simulators that can be found at various websites. In this case I used two different ones just to get a look at a couple different draft boards. I did five drafts using thedraftnetwork.com and another five using nflmockdraftdatabase.com.
In each draft I acted as the Packers general manager, making their selections, and allowed the simulator to take care of the rest of the leagues picks. Also I turned off the trade option so all picks were taken in the exact order that they are now (which we all know won’t be the case come draft day).
I then took each round's picks and put them into what I’m calling a draft pool: a list of people who have a solid chance to be available at the time of the Packers selection. Out of that draft pool I made my selection. I will list the draft pool for each pick before making my selection and try to break down my thought process.
Some players in the later rounds may have a number after their name. That means I selected them in that round in multiple draft simulations. I specifically avoided doing this in the earlier rounds to leave myself with as many options as possible in the draft pool.
Now, let's get to it!
ROUND 1, Pick No. 29
Draft Pool: Dillion Radunz (OT), Christian Barmore (IDL), Elijah Moore (WR), Caleb Farley (CB), Jamin Davis (LB), Terrace Marshall Jr (WR), Zaven Collins (LB), Samuel Cosmi (OT), Rondale Moore (WR), Greg Newsome II (CB)
In the effort to keep this as realistic as possible I immediately crossed Christian Barmore and Caleb Farley off the list as I don’t think there is a chance that they will still be there when the Packers draft at 29. If I am wrong and either name is on the board they should run that ticket up there as soon as possible.
While both OT and WR are big needs for the Packers, none of these players stood out to me as first round choices and both positions have good value later in the draft. That leaves me with three defensive choices: Jamin Davis, Zaven Collins, or Greg Newsome II...
THE PICK IS IN: Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
Collins started all three years at Tulsa and proved to be a tackling machine. He can rush the quarterback or drop into coverage. NFL.com compares him to the Cowboys Leighton Vander Esch. He should be immediately ready to step into the middle of the Packers defense, which is a weak spot, and start wreaking havoc.
ROUND 2, Pick No. 62
Draft Pool: Amari Rodgers (WR), Brady Christensen (OT), Jamar Johnson (S), D'Wayne Eskridge (WR), Daviyon Nixon (IDL), Jay Tufele (DL), Richie Grant (S), Levi Onwuzurike (DL), Jackson Carman (OT), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
While running through the simulators I made up my mind pretty quick that this is the spot that the Packers should target a WR. It is a deep receiver draft class but there is a little bit of a drop off after the second round. This position os a big need for them, so I don’t think they should risk losing out. In fact, as you will see later, I actually believe they should "double dip" at receiver in this draft. Which just left me with one decision: do I form an A-Rod to A-Rod connection or unite the two St. Brown brothers or....
THE PICK IS IN: D’Wayne Eskridge (WR, Western Michigan)
A smaller wide receiver but has the ability to step in and play right away, giving Aaron Rodgers an option out of the slot that the Packers have been missing since Randall Cobb. He has also proven in college that despite his size he can play outside. He can flat out run; look for him to replace MVS as Aaron’s favorite home run target sooner rather than later and also provide the Packers with a much needed weapon on special teams. He should be the day one punt and kick returner.
ROUND 3, Pick No. 92
Draft Pool: Benjamin St-Juste (CB), Trey Smith (IOL), Spencer Brown (OT), Hamsah Nasirildeen (S), Divine Deablo (S), Stone Forsythe (OT), Nico Collins (WR), Dylan Moses (LB), Chazz Surratt (LB), Milton Williams (DL)
With a lot of good players still available at positions of need for Green Bay, this was probably the hardest round to project. I could see them going offensive line here as the talent after this pick drops off but for me one player stood out more than anyone else…
THE PICK IS IN: Milton Williams (DL, Louisiana Tech)
The Packers need someone who can play next to Kenny Clark, and Williams has the ability to rush the quarterback from both inside and outside on the defensive line. He gives them another possible starter or quality rotational depth. Big guys get tired, so being able to rotate in fresh bodies is never a bad thing.
ROUND 4, Pick No. 135
Draft Pool: Jaylen Twyman (IDL), Shaun Wade (CB), Aaron Banks (IOL), David Moore (IOL), Osa Odighizuwa (IDL), Robert Rochell (CB - picked twice), Robert Hainsey (OT), Josh Palmer (WR), Dayo Odeyingbo (Edge)
Josh Palmer and Robert Rochell are two of my draft crushes, both are extremely physical athletes however both are extremely raw. For me it’s still too early for the WR double dip and after the NFC championship I think the Packers need a corner that can come in and play immediately...
THE PICK IS IN: Shaun Wade (CB, Ohio State)
A big body corner who can contribute right away and maybe be a starter by the end of the season. Can man the slot or play outside. Playing in four straight high school state championships and then with Ohio State, he’s no stranger to playing in big games, and is not afraid to lay a hit on somebody.
ROUND 4, Pick No. 142
Draft Pool: Monty Rice (LB), Dez Fitzpatrick (WR), Tre Brown (CB), Osa Odighizuwa (IDL), Shaun Wade (CB), Paris Ford (S), Khyiris Tonga (DL), Demetric Felton (RB), Marlon Tuipulotu (DL), Joshuah Bledsoe (S)
Having a compensatory pick is a luxury. This is another pick that could go in any direction so without further ado…
THE PICK IS IN: Paris Ford (S, Pittsburgh)
Going back to back defensive back picks may rub some folks the wrong way and I’ll be honest I think I may have missed the bus on some of the offensive lineman who were available earlier, but Paris Ford is no slouch. A sure tackler who will add big play ability to the secondary. Look for him to contribute mostly on special teams in year one and move into a starting spot in year two or three.
ROUND 5, Pick No. 173
Draft Pool: Marlon Williams (WR - picked twice), Anthony Schwartz (WR), Bobby Brown III (IDL), Jaylon Moore (OT), Drake Jackson (IOL), Sage Surratt (WR), Ambry Thomas (CB), Jamien Sherwood (S), Alaric Jackson (OT)
Anthony Schwartz and his blazing speed looked awfully tempting here but he was just too similar of a player to Eskridge, who we took in the second round. Plus there’s that whole thing of the offensive line that I’ve failed to address so…
THE PICK IS IN: Alaric Jackson OT Iowa
You usually can’t go wrong with a lineman or tight end from Iowa. At 6’5 and 321 pounds Jackson is a giant human being. He’s a bit raw and probably won’t see much action in 2021 but could provide good depth and is a solid prospect to start in the future.
ROUND 5, Pick No. 178
Draft Pool: Chuba Hubbard (RB), Joshuah Bledsoe (S), John Bates (TE), Kary Vincent, Jr. (CB), Adrian Ealy (OT), Cade Johnson (WR), Deommodore Lenoir (CB), Royce Newman (IOL), Sadarius Hutcherson (IOL), Khalil Herbert (RB)
Once again another compensatory pick let’s get right to it…
THE PICK IS IN: Royce Newman (IOL, Mississippi)
Going back to the offensive line again here. While Newman probably will be a role player in 2021, he does have the potential to start in year one if he puts together a great camp (but I suppose you can say that about anyone). He has experience at both guard and tackle.
ROUND 6, Pick No. 214
Draft Pool: Tariq Thompson (S), Jermar Jefferson R(B), Chris Evans R(B), Nick Niemann (LB), Josh Imatorbhebhe (WR), Victor Dimukeje (Edge), Kylin Hill (RB), Richard LeCounte S(), Shi Smith (WR) Tommy Kraemer )IOL)
Calling these late round picks a guessing-game is an understatement. Find a position you need or a player you like and roll the dice…
THE PICK IS IN: Josh Imatorbhebhe (WR, Illinois)
I will just take care of this right away for you: according to NFL.com his last name is pronounced ee-MAT-or-bay-bay. Get it. Got it? Good. I promised a double dip on receivers and I am nothing but a man of my word. Imatorbhebhe offers a bigger more physical body than Eskridge, who I took in the second round, and has the potential to start opposite Davante Adams down the road in a year or two.
ROUND 6, Pick No. 220
Draft Pool: Rachad Wildgoose, Jr. (CB), Buddy Johnson (LB - picked twice), Cornell Powell (WR), Jermer Jefferson (RB), Grant Stuard (LB), Carson Green (IOL), Dez Fitzpatrick (WR), Larry Rountree, III (RB), Riley Cole (LB)
So many compensatory picks, it really feels like I’m just stealing at this point…
THE PICK IS IN: Jermer Jefferson RB Oregon State
Running back isn’t a huge need for Green Bay but after losing Jamaal Williams in free agency, it's important they add some depth. So, enter Jamaal Williams 2.0! I can't vouch for him having Jamaal’s personality or love of anime, but he can contribute in both the passing and running game proven by averaging 159.5 all purpose yards per game in 2020. He should find some snaps in 2021, I'm just not sure how many.
ROUND 7, Pick No. 256
Draft Pool: Michal Menet (IOL), Sage Surratt (WR), Michael Stachan-Charleston (WR), Elijah Mitchell (RB), Josh Sills (IOL), Brenden Knox (RB), Olaijah Griffin (CB), Chales Snowden (LB), Camryn Bynum (CB), Whop Philyor (WR)
Seventh round picks should be the best available player. I believe I covered most of the Packers needs with the earlier picks but they still could use a little help on defense maybe another linebacker or edge rusher…
THE PICK IS IN: Charles Snowden (LB,Virginia)
Snowdown is a linebacker with experience playing both middle and the edge. Expect him to earn his roster spot based on special teams in 2021 and compete for a role on defense later on.
