MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll found incumbents Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson hold "slim leads" against their opponents ahead of Wisconsin's elections on Nov. 8.
Poll findings on Wisconsin Senate election
The poll released Wednesday states 49 percent of respondents said they support Johnson while 48 percent said they support Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. That's compared to 51 percent for Barnes and 44 percent for Johnson in the Marquette poll in August.
Poll findings on Wisconsin governor election
For the governor's race, the poll states 47 percent of respondents supported Evers while 44 percent supported Republican challenger Tim Michels. A remaining 5 percent supported the independent candidate who has since ended her campaign.
That's compared to 48 percent supporting Evers and 44 percent for Michels in August. The month before that in June, it was Evers 48 percent, Michels 41 percent.
General election findings, according to poll
The poll also found that supporters of the political parties remain loyal. 92 percent of respondents identifying as Republicans supported Michels, while 95 percent of respondents identifying as Democrats supported Evers. Meanwhile, Johnson is supported by 97 percent of Republicans and Barnes is supported by 96 percent of Democrats, the poll found.
Among respondents who said they are independent, Evers received 25 percent while Michels received 39 percent. Among the same group of respondents, Johnson received 48 percent while Barnes received 46 percent.
Among respondents who said they are registered voters, 77 percent of Republicans, 80 percent of Democrats and 91 percent of independents said they are "absolutely certain" to vote in the Nov. 8 election.
The survey was done Sept. 6-11, 2022 and interviewed 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among likely voters is +/- 4.9 percentage points, according to the poll.
Read the full Marquette Law School Poll on their website.
View more of the poll's summary below:
Table 1: Vote for Wisconsin governor
(a) Likely voters
Poll dates | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 47 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
(b) Registered voters
Poll dates | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 44 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
6/14-20/22 | 48 | 41 | NA | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates, among likely voters in August and September and among registered voters since June.
Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate
(a) Likely voters
Poll dates | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 48 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 52 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
(b) Registered voters
Poll dates | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 47 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 51 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
6/14-20/22 | 46 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
Table 3: Vote for governor among likely voters, by party identification
(a) September
Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
Republican | 3 | 92 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Independent | 45 | 39 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Democrat | 95 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(b) August
Party ID | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know | Refused |
Republican | 5 | 92 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Independent | 49 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
Democrat | 94 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4, among likely voters.
Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among likely voters, by party identification
(a) September
Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
Republican | 2 | 97 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Independent | 46 | 48 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Democrat | 96 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(b) August
Party ID | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
Republican | 6 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Independent | 55 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Democrat | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification
(a) September
Party ID | Absolutely certain | Very likely | 50-50 | Will not vote |
Republican | 77 | 16 | 3 | 3 |
Independent | 71 | 13 | 12 | 3 |
Democrat | 80 | 12 | 7 | 0 |
(b) August
Party ID | Absolutely certain | Very likely | 50-50 | Will not vote |
Republican | 83 | 11 | 4 | 2 |
Independent | 66 | 16 | 14 | 3 |
Democrat | 82 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting
How likely to vote | Evers | Michels | Beglinger | Other | Don’t know |
Among all registered voters | 44 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote | 45 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Only those “absolutely certain” to vote | 47 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Table 7: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certainty of voting
How likely to vote | Barnes | Johnson | Neither | Don’t know |
All registered voters | 47 | 48 | 3 | 3 |
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote | 47 | 49 | 1 | 2 |
Only those “absolutely certain” to vote | 48 | 49 | 1 | 1 |
Perceived candidate traits
Table 8 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.
Table 8: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [name below] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (Among registered voters.)
(a) Evers
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 45 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 46 | 41 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 44 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
(b) Michels
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 34 | 39 | 19 | 8 | 1 |
8/10-15/22 | 33 | 33 | 24 | 10 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 22 | 22 | 51 | 5 | 0 |
(c) Beglinger
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 28 | 0 |
(d) Barnes
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 33 | 32 | 25 | 9 | 1 |
8/10-15/22 | 37 | 22 | 30 | 11 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 21 | 16 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
(e) Johnson
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 39 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
8/10-15/22 | 38 | 47 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 37 | 46 | 14 | 2 | 0 |
Table 9 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin.
Table 9: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (Among registered voters.)
(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?
Poll dates | Tony Evers | Tim Michels | Both | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 47 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?
Poll dates | Mandela Barnes | Ron Johnson | Both | Neither | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 44 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Table 10 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.”
Table 10: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values, or don’t they share your values? (Among registered voters.)
Candidate | Shares values | Doesn’t share values | Don’t know |
Evers | 47 | 48 | 5 |
Michels | 41 | 47 | 11 |
Barnes | 44 | 41 | 15 |
Johnson | 42 | 51 | 7 |
Perceptions of incumbents’ performance
Table 11 shows the perceived effectiveness of Evers as governor and Johnson as a senator, among registered voters.
Table 11: How effective is [Tony Evers as governor of Wisconsin]/[Ron Johnson as a US Senator]? (Among registered voters.)
(a) Tony Evers
Poll dates | Very effective | Somewhat effective | Not very effective | Not at all effective | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 18 | 35 | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 |
(b) Ron Johnson
Poll dates | Very effective | Somewhat effective | Not very effective | Not at all effective | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 20 | 30 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 0 |
Table 12 shows the views among registered voters of how Evers and Johnson responded to the coronavirus pandemic.
Table 12: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Tony Evers]/[Ron Johnson] responded to the coronavirus pandemic? (Among registered voters.)
(a) Tony Evers
Poll dates | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 27 | 23 | 13 | 29 | 8 | 0 |
(b) Ron Johnson
Poll dates | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 37 | 18 | 1 |
Table 13 shows approval and disapproval among registered voters of how Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020.
Table 13: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 16 | 22 | 10 | 37 | 15 | 0 |
Evers job approval
Table 14: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Net approval | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | -3 | 44 | 47 | 8 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 2 | 47 | 45 | 8 | 1 |
6/14-20/22 | 3 | 48 | 45 | 6 | 1 |
4/19-24/22 | 6 | 49 | 43 | 7 | 1 |
2/22-27/22 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 8 | 1 |
Important issues
Table 15: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with …, (Among registered voters.)
Issue | Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned |
Inflation | 70 | 24 | 5 | 2 |
Crime | 61 | 27 | 10 | 2 |
Accurate vote count | 56 | 21 | 11 | 12 |
Public schools | 56 | 33 | 7 | 2 |
Gun violence | 55 | 26 | 11 | 6 |
Abortion policy | 53 | 24 | 11 | 8 |
Taxes | 51 | 32 | 10 | 6 |
Climate change | 44 | 29 | 14 | 13 |
Illegal immigration | 38 | 31 | 18 | 11 |
Coronavirus | 22 | 29 | 23 | 25 |
Table 16: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Sept. 2022 (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned |
9/6-11/22 | 70 | 24 | 5 | 2 |
8/10-15/22 | 67 | 27 | 4 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 75 | 20 | 4 | 1 |
4/19-24/22 | 69 | 23 | 6 | 1 |
2/22-27/22 | 68 | 28 | 3 | 1 |
10/26-31/21 | 64 | 28 | 6 | 1 |
8/3-8/21 | 49 | 35 | 11 | 3 |
Table 17: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (Among registered voters.)
(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans
Issue | Republican | Independent | Democrat |
Inflation | 92 | 69 | 41 |
Accurate vote count | 76 | 56 | 40 |
Taxes | 74 | 48 | 26 |
Crime | 71 | 61 | 47 |
Illegal immigration | 69 | 32 | 19 |
Public schools | 53 | 60 | 53 |
Gun violence | 39 | 52 | 85 |
Abortion policy | 34 | 54 | 77 |
Climate change | 17 | 39 | 71 |
Coronavirus | 9 | 23 | 33 |
(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats
Issue | Republican | Independent | Democrat |
Gun violence | 39 | 52 | 85 |
Abortion policy | 34 | 54 | 77 |
Climate change | 17 | 39 | 71 |
Public schools | 53 | 60 | 53 |
Crime | 71 | 61 | 47 |
Inflation | 92 | 69 | 41 |
Accurate vote count | 76 | 56 | 40 |
Coronavirus | 9 | 23 | 33 |
Taxes | 74 | 48 | 26 |
Illegal immigration | 69 | 32 | 19 |
(c) Sorted by concern among Independents
Issue | Republican | Independent | Democrat |
Inflation | 92 | 69 | 41 |
Crime | 71 | 61 | 47 |
Public schools | 53 | 60 | 53 |
Accurate vote count | 76 | 56 | 40 |
Abortion policy | 34 | 54 | 77 |
Gun violence | 39 | 52 | 85 |
Taxes | 74 | 48 | 26 |
Climate change | 17 | 39 | 71 |
Illegal immigration | 69 | 32 | 19 |
Coronavirus | 9 | 23 | 33 |
Abortion
Table 18: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
(a) September
Party ID | Favor | Oppose | Haven’t heard of decision | Don’t Know | Refused |
Total | 30 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
Republican | 59 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
Independent | 28 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
Democrat | 3 | 95 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
(b) August
Party ID | Favor | Oppose | Haven’t heard of decision | Don’t Know | Refused |
Total | 33 | 60 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
Republican | 62 | 28 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
Independent | 31 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Democrat | 5 | 92 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Table 19: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
(a) September
Party ID | Should allow | Should not allow | Don’t Know | Refused |
Total | 83 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
Republican | 70 | 20 | 8 | 3 |
Independent | 83 | 9 | 6 | 2 |
Democrat | 96 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
(b) August
Party ID | Should allow | Should not allow | Don’t Know | Refused |
Total | 88 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
Republican | 79 | 16 | 4 | 2 |
Independent | 87 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
Democrat | 97 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Other issues
Table 20: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (Among registered voters.)
Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
Total | 46 | 50 | 3 | 1 |
Republican | 11 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
Independent | 46 | 50 | 4 | 0 |
Democrat | 85 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
Table 21: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? (By education and age, among registered voters.)
Education | Age | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
Non-college grad | 18-29 | 74 | 24 | 3 | 0 |
Non-college grad | 30-44 | 49 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
Non-college grad | 45-59 | 38 | 55 | 7 | 0 |
Non-college grad | 60+ | 34 | 63 | 2 | 2 |
College grad | 18-29 | 76 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
College grad | 30-44 | 51 | 46 | 4 | 0 |
College grad | 45-59 | 42 | 54 | 3 | 0 |
College grad | 60+ | 45 | 51 | 4 | 0 |
Table 22: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID | Feel safe | Worried | Don’t know |
Total | 76 | 23 | 1 |
Republican | 78 | 21 | 1 |
Independent | 75 | 24 | 1 |
Democrat | 76 | 23 | 1 |
Table 23: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID | Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned | Don’t know |
Total | 61 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Republican | 71 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Independent | 61 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
Democrat | 47 | 35 | 15 | 3 | 0 |
Table 24: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? (By region among registered voters, Oct. 2021, April 2022, and Sept. 2022.)
Region | Feel safe | Worried | Don’t know |
City of Milwaukee | 52 | 48 | 0 |
Rest of Milwaukee media market | 74 | 24 | 2 |
Madison media market | 82 | 17 | 1 |
Green Bay media market | 87 | 12 | 1 |
Rest of north and west of state | 85 | 15 | 0 |
Table 25: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? (By region among registered voters, Aug. and Sept. 2022.)
Region | Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned | Don’t know |
City of Milwaukee | 74 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rest of Milwaukee media market | 71 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Madison media market | 53 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Green Bay media market | 48 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 2 |
Rest of north and west of state | 53 | 32 | 11 | 2 | 1 |
Table 26: Do you think the decision in 2020 to close schools and businesses and to restrict the size of public gatherings was an appropriate response to the coronavirus outbreak or was it an overreaction that did more harm than good? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Appropriate response | Overreaction | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 56 | 41 | 3 | 0 |
2/22-27/22 | 61 | 35 | 3 | 0 |
8/3-8/21 | 62 | 35 | 2 | 1 |
10/21-25/20 | 68 | 26 | 5 | 0 |
6/14-18/20 | 72 | 25 | 3 | 0 |
5/3-7/20 | 69 | 26 | 4 | 1 |
3/24-29/20 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
Table 27: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID | Reducing property taxes | Increasing spending on public schools | Don’t know | Refused |
Total | 41 | 51 | 5 | 3 |
Republican | 69 | 22 | 5 | 4 |
Independent | 46 | 42 | 8 | 4 |
Democrat | 12 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
Table 28: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community? (Among registered voters.)
Party ID | Very satisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Very dissatisfied | Don’t know |
Total | 19 | 43 | 20 | 11 | 7 |
Republican | 13 | 38 | 22 | 17 | 10 |
Independent | 17 | 45 | 19 | 12 | 6 |
Democrat | 28 | 47 | 17 | 2 | 6 |
Direction of state, Biden approval, Baldwin favorability
Table 29: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Right direction | Wrong track | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 40 | 53 | 7 | 1 |
8/10-15/22 | 35 | 56 | 9 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 37 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
4/19-24/22 | 36 | 56 | 7 | 0 |
2/22-27/22 | 39 | 53 | 8 | 1 |
Table 30: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 40 | 55 | 4 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 40 | 55 | 5 | 1 |
6/14-20/22 | 40 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
4/19-24/22 | 43 | 53 | 3 | 1 |
2/22-27/22 | 43 | 52 | 3 | 2 |
Table 31: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 37 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 1 |
8/10-15/22 | 39 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 39 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 1 |
4/19-24/22 | 43 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 0 |
2/22-27/22 | 42 | 36 | 18 | 3 | 1 |
2020 election confidence and Trump favorability
Table 32: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID | Very confident | Somewhat confident | Not too confident | Not at all confident | Don’t know | Refused |
Total | 46 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Republican | 13 | 22 | 29 | 34 | 1 | 1 |
Independent | 41 | 23 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Democrat | 86 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Table 33 shows the trend since 2021 in 2020 election confidence.
Table 33: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Very confident | Somewhat confident | Not too confident | Not at all confident | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 46 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 48 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 2 | 1 |
6/14-20/22 | 51 | 16 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
4/19-24/22 | 48 | 16 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 |
2/22-27/22 | 48 | 19 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 0 |
10/26-31/21 | 47 | 18 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 0 |
8/3-8/21 | 48 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Table 34: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Total and by party identification, among registered voters.)
Party ID | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
Total | 38 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Republican | 79 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Independent | 32 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Democrat | 4 | 94 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Table 35: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | Refused |
9/6-11/22 | 38 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
8/10-15/22 | 38 | 57 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
6/14-20/22 | 39 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
4/19-24/22 | 36 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
2/22-27/22 | 36 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
10/26-31/21 | 38 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
8/3-8/21 | 38 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 1 |