Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.
One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."
THE METHOD
Lichtman doesn't look at polls.
"Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.
Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.
They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent.
"If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.
2020 PREDICTION
Lichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.
In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent.
"Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said.
